Книги и журналы. Форсайт для индустрии

In next 5 years magazine industry will loose 35% of its revenue but by 2020 the industry will recover because of digital delivery. By then industry will be changed completely and will be 58% digital, as opposed to 10% now. Digital will overtake magazine print by 2016 and this will make it easier to enter the market.

Book industry will continue to grow slowly through 2020. Digital will grow 36% in 2014 and end up at 60% by 2020. Revenues from digital will eventually surpass revenues from print and see many more small players as barriers to entry are removed. Ereaders in use: 2010 15m unit installed base forecast, by 2020 861 million installed base. Unit prices of ereaders will fall to under $100 by 2015 and this is when the market will really take off. Expect this price point to be reached for all forms of ereaders. In 2020 expect to spend $80/ereader for digital content per year.

iPad will run parallel to current market for ereaders and not damage it much because they both serve different needs. Microsoft is not in this market currently and the market has moved so fast that they have no place in it in the future.


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